FORECASTING THE FUTURE

A Manager's Guide to Program Health and Sustainability

---

Introduction

Motorcycling is on a roll.  Unit sales of street bikes are up by more than 100% in the past five years (1996-2001).  The aftermarket community is enjoying strong sales of apparel, parts and equipment.  The boomer generation is the driving force of this upswing, with discretionary funds, time to burn and an appetite for adventure.  What could be better?

Our motorcycle safety programs are often the first steps on this road to adventure, and it is not uncommon to witness courses filled to capacity weeks, if not months, in advance of training.  This demand for training is bowing the back of the rider training community, and the condition will only amplify in the future if this industry fails to take steps to remove impediments to training and education.

This report will focus on the future while building on past successes.  SMSA and the TEAM OREGON Motorcycle Safety Program at Oregon State University have joined forces for the purpose of providing tools and strategies for members to use in developing programs that meet the future needs of motorcyclists and safety programs.

A survey was distributed to SMSA member states to identify the following:

• Capacity issues and limitations
• Administrative issues and limitations
• Instructor training and training infrastructure issues and limitations

Included in this initiative is the production of  tools and a planning strategy for members to assess their individual program to help guide them in developing programs to meet the future needs of their constituents.

The Problem

Twenty-six states responded to the survey.  The top five reported challenges are:

• Unmet Demand
• Money
• Sites
• Instructors
• Bikes

Many State programs are built on an infrastructure of the 1980's, when maybe a few hundred people were trained in an entire year.  Now it's a few thousand or more!  The concern to all state managers is to design and maintain a program that is sustainable, affordable and effective.  It starts with a mission.

The Mission

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of the states responding provided mission statements.  A mission statement defines the organization's charge - it's what the organization does, whom it serves, its ethic and purpose.  The mission statement sets the tone and focus for future decisions.   For example, if your mission is to train motorcyclists to be safer street riders, the decision to place resources in ATV training is not in keeping with your mission.  If you choose to pursue this training, then agreement must be reached to revise the mission.  Simple.

The mission statement must provide measurable results by which one can determine effectiveness.   Here's a good example of a mission that can provide performance measures:

• To provide quality rider education at an affordable cost within 50 miles of 98% of all residents

The manager can and should measure:

• Was rider education provided?  How much, when and where?
• Was the rider education quality education?  Provide proof.
• Was the rider education delivered at an affordable cost?  Give examples.
• Was the rider education delivered within 50 miles of 98% of all residents?  Provide proof.

This is an ambitious mission, but the marching orders are clear, and everyone associated with this program knows what this program is about.

There are many other excellent examples of mission statements that provide clear objectives and measurable results:

• Foster and promote safe and responsible motorcycle operation through quality rider education programs and public information campaigns.
• Provide quality instruction in safe riding techniques for beginning and experienced motorcyclist.  Our goal is to increase skill and knowledge in an attempt to produce a safe and conscientious motorcyclist.
• To provide motorcycle safety training and education to all interested parties within a reasonable time based on their time of request and to provide such training within a reasonable distance from where they reside. Exceptional Customer Service is of the utmost importance, from initial contact at registration continuing through graduation.
This one is not as specific as the others, and leaves open to program administration to define and defend what is "reasonable."  Ideally, those criteria are specified in the mission statement.

There were equal number of mission statements that, while laudable, lack clearly defined performance measures that can be directly credited to the motorcycle safety program.  Examples include:

• Reduce motorcycle crashes, injuries and fatalities.
• To minimize deaths/injuries to motorcyclists by having safety training.
• Reduce the number of accident-involved motorcyclists.

Most program managers keep an eye on accident and fatal data.  Our goal may be to reduce the incidence of crashes and death, but unless all riders complete training, in-state accident research is conducted to determine causation, and your program responds to this data is some way (example - altering the focus of exercises or modules or having all riders go through periodic updates), then the mission statement reflects a goal rather than a mission.  We all want fewer crashes and death.  What we do within our programs will hopefully make a difference in these statistics, but without research, there is no way to measure success or chart change. 

Compare your mission statement with your deliverables.  Does it provide guidance?  Can you compare your successes to your mission?  Are improvements made to keep you on-target?

Limiting Objectives

Once a mission is defined, then a manager can create performance objectives. These objectives should focus scarce resources on getting the most bang for the buck by targeting the audience you serve.  Fifty-six percent (56%) of the states responding reported that the beginning rider was their target audience.  The remaining states (44%) target all riders.  Comparing mission to target and available resources (funding, sites, instructors, staff, etc.) will help define the scope of services available to the target audience.  What remains may be applied to secondary targets.  Be specific.  What does your legislation specify?  If training is required in your state, then your target audience is that which is specified by legislation, typically riders under 18 or 21.  That's who gets the number one plate!  Place resources in programs that provide the greatest return to your target audience!  In some cases this may mean that you limit programs for experienced riders.  It's painful, but with limited resources, may be necessary.

Growing your Program

Riders are coached to look where they want to go.  A good "eyes-up" strategy is useful here in formulating a plan on where to look to grow your program.  Many states are plagued by the lack of funding and staffing.  Those are likely "fixed hazards" in that they won't move, or not without considerable effort.  So how do you grow a program when you're already stretched to the limit?  You plan for it.  Maximize some resources, target, and grow in select areas.

Aside from dollars and staffing, the main impediment to expansion is the shortage of sites and instructors.   These conditions require your attention and, in some cases intervention, for the success of your program hinges on your success in finding and retaining quality instructors and sites.  For information on getting the most from your sites, click here.   For information on retaining instructors, click here.

The survey research shows that many states are treading water when it comes to growing the instructor corps.  Some are going backward.  The national average of 10.65% growth of the instructor corps is a healthy figure, but the average hides the dire situation that exists in many states.  Herein lies the most critical issue facing our industry - finding, training and keeping qualified instructors.

Solutions exist, but not by following the paradigm of the past.  This industry must change the way in which we solicit, train and retain instructors and Chief Instructors/Trainers.  The instructor training infrastructure, built in '70's, is incapable of meeting tomorrow's needs for qualified instructors and trainers.

Infrastructure Tune-Up  

Take a look at your infrastructure.  Is it capable of meeting the needs of your program in 3-5 years?  Include in your review:

• Administration                                                                                                
• Individual duties and routine assignments for personnel or contractors
Look for duplication of effort.  Are three people performing the same three functions?  Do their efforts cross paths? Can one person be assigned each function?
• Available funding
Identify what is needed in 3-5 years and begin stating your case to those who can affect a change.   Don't forget to look closely at student tuition.  Most states undercharge for the services they provide.  For the continued health and success of your program - raise the rate!
• Electronic Resources
• Web Sites:  70% of the states report having web sites.  This resource is extremely useful in distributing information, including:
1. Instructor scheduling
2. Course scheduling
3. Student registration
4. Instructor recruiting
5. Information clearinghouse for public and instructors
6. Dealer advertising
• List-Serv
Using electronic means to transmit messages to a large population of people, like instructors, is a quick and easy way to get the word out.  Many times these resources are available for free.
• Database
Invest in and use database technology.  It will save time and money.
• Training program
• Locations

Are you duplicating services and paying for it?   Are two contractors vying for one training location?  Make a choice. Can one coordinator/contractor handle multiple sites?

• Schedule
Are you in a community often enough?  Too often?  Can you consolidate schedules to roll communities together?
• Instructors
Do you have adequate instructor numbers in your communities?  Where do you need to grow?  Concentrate your instructor training in these communities.
• Product
Does the curricula suit the needs of your program and consumer?  If not, what needs to be done?  Some states are offering Intermediate Rider Training.  This training is suited for riders returning to motorcycling or those with some experience.  In some cases DMV will offer skills test waivers for these graduates.  The benefit is that the IRC is one day, students provide personally owned motorcycles, and these students don't take seats in the  beginning program, hence making that program more efficient.

Do a top-to-bottom inspection of your program.  Challenge the status quo.  Just because it's "always been done this way" doesn't make it effective in today's business climate.  Change is refreshing and you are the one to make it happen.  Go for it!

Business Plan

A business plan sets forth program activities for a specified period of time, usually one to three years.  This strategic plan is the crowning touch of your program design effort, and includes:

• One year plan and multiple year plan.  You go where you look!  Where do you want to go?  What do you want your program to become?
• Annual program goals
• Training targets - by location
• Determine capacity and amount of growth allowed based upon community demand, site availability and instructor availability.  Be cautious about trying to grow too fast - it strains the infrastructure.
• Instructor and CI training
• Forecast growth and need.  Plan accordingly.
• Staffing
• Set forth plan and communicate expectations.
• Financial goals
• What's the budget?  How will you allocate funds?
• Public information goals
• Licensing improvement
• Communication
• Communicate your with partners, instructors and friends.  Give them a voice in the plan.  Recruit them in your effort to improve program operation.
• Evaluation
• Prepare your list of specific goals for the year and beyond.  Prepare a simple evaluation design to measure your effectiveness.  For example:
• Objective - Increase basic rider training in Cycleville by 20% during the 2003 training season.
• Objective - Add four new instructors to the Jerome site.
• Measure the results.
• Was basic rider training increased in Cycleville by 20%?  If no, why not?
• Were four new instructors introduced to the Jerome site?  If no, why not?
• Accountability is a cornerstone of a good business plan.  Set your targets and then measure your effectiveness at reaching your goals.  It's okay to come up short.  It's not okay to miss completely.  Adjust your expectations accordingly and stay on the plan!

Good luck with your program!